Blaise Pascal and the Theory of Probability - Why it is important and Research Paper

Blaise Pascal and the Theory of Probability - Why it is important and the implications of this contribution - Research Paper Example Throughout history, various theories and principles had been laid down by mathematicians to further strengthen and deepen the study of numbers, space and computations. Numbers have been the characters used in math while letters are usually used in language. The operations and proofs that are done throughout the development in the field of mathematics give way to the modernization and advancement of the human mind. One of the theories that led to the advancement is the Theory of Probability. The Theory of Probability comes from the word probable and the adjective probably. â€Å"Probably† is usually used in casual conversation like: Caesar probably visited Britain. The outbreak of a nuclear war is less probable now than it was 10 or 15 years ago. The likely winner is Miss Florida. The expanding universe theory is probably true. The door is probably locked. (Weatherford, 1982, p. 2) The word probably cannot describe probability in a specific way as adjectives are descriptive wor ds. Once probably is said, it describes an object qualitatively. Probably pertains to qualitative description of frequency. Most people do not use probable in a mathematical sense as that word can also mean â€Å"possible, conceivable, plausible, reasonable and typical,† (Gigerenzer, 2007, p. 95). ... 1). In addition, uncertainty is concerned with the unknown or the insufficient information regarding the present and the future. The degree of uncertainty is linked with risk. Risk is the uncertain result which can be positive or negative. The positive risk is called opportunity while the negative risk is threat (Cretu, Stewart and Berrends, 2011, p. 4). Probability allows people to have calculated assessment of the unknown outcome. The theory can be elaborated in three ways as discussed in the succeeding paragraph. The Theory of Probability can be discussed using a classical method, simple property method and statistical method. Using classical method, the theory provides a standard measure for determining the uncertainties in the occurring events. Classical method can also be called mathematical method as an equation can be used to represent the theory: P (A) = n/N = No. of outcomes favorable to A/No. of outcomes in ? = v (A)/v (?) Where A = the event or subset of interested outcom es n = the number of outcomes ? = the set of all outcomes v (?) = the number of sample points in ? v (A) = the number of points in A (Bhat, 1999, p. 2) Another way of elaborating the Theory of Probability is through the use of simple property method. Additive property of addition is the basic form of probability theory. The following can illustrate the property: P (A?B) = P (A + B) = (m + n)/N = (m/N) = P (A) + P (B) [†¦] Probability function possesses the following properties: (i) P(A) ? 0, (non-negativity); (ii) P(A1 + †¦ + An) = ?n1 P(Ai), (Additivity), (iii) P(?) = 1 (normed) It follows immediately that P (?) = P (A + Ac) = P (A) + P (Ac) = 1, P (Ac) = 1 – P (A) ? 0, and hence 0 ? P (A) ? 1. Since P (?)